diff --git a/Frictrade.py b/Frictrade.py index d59a03e..bb2b5ec 100644 --- a/Frictrade.py +++ b/Frictrade.py @@ -511,15 +511,14 @@ class Frictrade(IStrategy): dataframe.loc[ ( # (dataframe['sma5_inv'] == 1) - ( - (dataframe['pct180'] < 0.5) | - ( - (dataframe['close'] < dataframe['sma60'] ) - & (dataframe['sma24_deriv1'] > 0) - ) - ) - & (dataframe['hapercent'] > 0) - & (dataframe['sma24_deriv1'] > - 0.03) + # ( + # ((dataframe['pct180'] < 0.5) | (dataframe['sma24_deriv1'] > 0)) + # |((dataframe['close'] < dataframe['sma24'] ) & (dataframe['sma24_deriv1'] > 0)) + # + # ) + (dataframe['hapercent'] > 0) + & (dataframe['rsi'] < 85) + & (dataframe['sma24'] > dataframe['sma60']) # & ( # (dataframe['percent3'] <= -0.003) # | (dataframe['percent12'] <= -0.003) @@ -578,7 +577,7 @@ class Frictrade(IStrategy): # base_size = montant de base que tu veux utiliser (ex: stake_amount ou autre) base_size = base_stake # exemple fraction du portefeuille; adapte selon ton code # new stake proportionnel à mult - new_stake = base_size * mult + new_stake = base_size #* mult return new_stake def adjust_trade_position(self, trade: Trade, current_time: datetime, @@ -817,11 +816,11 @@ class Frictrade(IStrategy): stake=0 ) - if last_candle['sma24_deriv1'] > 0 : #and minutes < 180 and baisse < 30: # and last_candle['sma5_deriv1'] > -0.15: - if (minutes < 180): - return None - if (minutes > 1440 and last_candle['sma60_deriv1'] > 0) : - return None + # if last_candle['sma24_deriv1'] > 0 : #and minutes < 180 and baisse < 30: # and last_candle['sma5_deriv1'] > -0.15: + # if (minutes < 180): + # return None + # if (minutes > 1440 and last_candle['sma60_deriv1'] > 0) : + # return None # ----- 4) OFFSET : faut-il attendre de dépasser trailing_stop_positive_offset ? ----- diff --git a/FrictradeLearning.py b/FrictradeLearning.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3a39bb5 --- /dev/null +++ b/FrictradeLearning.py @@ -0,0 +1,2051 @@ +# Zeus Strategy: First Generation of GodStra Strategy with maximum +# AVG/MID profit in USDT +# Author: @Mablue (Masoud Azizi) +# github: https://github.com/mablue/ +# IMPORTANT: INSTALL TA BEFOUR RUN(pip install ta) +# freqtrade hyperopt --hyperopt-loss SharpeHyperOptLoss --spaces buy sell roi --strategy Zeus +# --- Do not remove these libs --- +from datetime import timedelta, datetime +from freqtrade.persistence import Trade +from freqtrade.strategy import (BooleanParameter, CategoricalParameter, DecimalParameter, stoploss_from_open, + IntParameter, IStrategy, merge_informative_pair, informative, stoploss_from_absolute) +import pandas as pd +import numpy as np +import os +import json +import csv +from pandas import DataFrame +from typing import Optional, Union, Tuple +import math +import logging +from pathlib import Path + +# -------------------------------- + +# Add your lib to import here test git +import ta +import talib.abstract as talib +import freqtrade.vendor.qtpylib.indicators as qtpylib +from datetime import timezone, timedelta + +# Machine Learning +from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestClassifier,RandomForestRegressor +from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split +from sklearn.metrics import r2_score, mean_absolute_error, mean_squared_error +from sklearn.metrics import accuracy_score +import joblib +import matplotlib.pyplot as plt +from sklearn.metrics import ( + classification_report, + confusion_matrix, + accuracy_score, + roc_auc_score, + roc_curve, + precision_score, recall_score, precision_recall_curve, + f1_score +) +from sklearn.tree import export_text +import inspect +from sklearn.feature_selection import mutual_info_classif +from sklearn.inspection import permutation_importance +from lightgbm import LGBMClassifier +from sklearn.calibration import CalibratedClassifierCV +from sklearn.feature_selection import SelectFromModel +from tabulate import tabulate +from sklearn.model_selection import GridSearchCV +from sklearn.feature_selection import VarianceThreshold +import seaborn as sns +from xgboost import XGBClassifier +import optuna +from optuna.visualization import plot_optimization_history +from optuna.visualization import plot_slice +from optuna.visualization import plot_param_importances +from optuna.visualization import plot_parallel_coordinate +import shap +from sklearn.inspection import PartialDependenceDisplay + +from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split +from sklearn.metrics import f1_score +from xgboost import XGBClassifier + +logger = logging.getLogger(__name__) + +# Couleurs ANSI de base +RED = "\033[31m" +GREEN = "\033[32m" +YELLOW = "\033[33m" +BLUE = "\033[34m" +MAGENTA = "\033[35m" +CYAN = "\033[36m" +RESET = "\033[0m" + + +class FrictradeLearning(IStrategy): + startup_candle_count = 180 + + model_indicators = [] + DEFAULT_PARAMS = { + "rsi_buy": 30, + "rsi_sell": 70, + "ema_period": 21, + "sma_short": 20, + "sma_long": 100, + "atr_period": 14, + "atr_multiplier": 1.5, + "stake_amount": None, # use exchange default + "stoploss": -0.10, + "minimal_roi": {"0": 0.10} + } + + # ROI table: + minimal_roi = { + "0": 10 + } + + # Stoploss: + stoploss = -1 # 0.256 + # Custom stoploss + use_custom_stoploss = False + + trailing_stop = False + trailing_stop_positive = 0.15 + trailing_stop_positive_offset = 0.5 + trailing_only_offset_is_reached = True + + # Buy hypers + timeframe = '1m' + max_open_trades = 5 + max_amount = 40 + + parameters = {} + # DCA config + position_adjustment_enable = True + + columns_logged = False + pairs = { + pair: { + "first_buy": 0, + "last_buy": 0.0, + "last_min": 999999999999999.5, + "last_max": 0, + "trade_info": {}, + "max_touch": 0.0, + "last_sell": 0.0, + 'count_of_buys': 0, + 'current_profit': 0, + 'expected_profit': 0, + 'previous_profit': 0, + "last_candle": {}, + "last_count_of_buys": 0, + 'base_stake_amount': 0, + 'stop_buy': False, + 'last_date': 0, + 'stop': False, + 'max_profit': 0, + 'first_amount': 0, + 'total_amount': 0, + 'has_gain': 0, + 'force_sell': False, + 'force_buy': False + } + for pair in ["BTC/USDC", "ETH/USDC", "DOGE/USDC", "XRP/USDC", "SOL/USDC", + "BTC/USDT", "ETH/USDT", "DOGE/USDT", "XRP/USDT", "SOL/USDT"] + } + trades = list() + max_profit_pairs = {} + + btc_ath_history = [ + {"date": "2011-06-09", "price_usd": 26.15, "note": "pic 2011 (early breakout)"}, + {"date": "2013-11-29", "price_usd": 1132.00, "note": "bull run fin 2013"}, + {"date": "2017-12-17", "price_usd": 19783.00, "note": "ATH décembre 2017 (crypto bubble)"}, + {"date": "2020-12-31", "price_usd": 29001.72, "note": "fin 2020, nouveau record après accumulation)"}, + {"date": "2021-11-10", "price_usd": 68742.00, "note": "record novembre 2021 (institutional demand)"}, + {"date": "2024-03-05", "price_usd": 69000.00, + "note": "nouveau pic début 2024 (source presse, valeur indicative)"}, + {"date": "2025-07-11", "price_usd": 118755.00, "note": "pic juillet 2025 (valeur rapportée par la presse)"}, + {"date": "2025-10-06", "price_usd": 126198.07, + "note": "pic oct. 2025 (source agrégée, à vérifier selon l'exchange)"} + ] + + def confirm_trade_entry(self, pair: str, order_type: str, amount: float, rate: float, time_in_force: str, + current_time: datetime, entry_tag: Optional[str], **kwargs) -> bool: + + minutes = 0 + if self.pairs[pair]['last_date'] != 0: + minutes = round(int((current_time - self.pairs[pair]['last_date']).total_seconds() / 60)) + + dataframe, _ = self.dp.get_analyzed_dataframe(pair, self.timeframe) + last_candle = dataframe.iloc[-1].squeeze() + last_candle_2 = dataframe.iloc[-2].squeeze() + last_candle_3 = dataframe.iloc[-3].squeeze() + + condition = True #(last_candle[f"{indic_5m}_deriv1"] >= indic_deriv1_5m) and (last_candle[f"{indic_5m}_deriv2"] >= indic_deriv2_5m) + + allow_to_buy = True #(condition and not self.pairs[pair]['stop']) | (entry_tag == 'force_entry') + + if allow_to_buy: + self.trades = list() + self.pairs[pair]['first_buy'] = rate + self.pairs[pair]['last_buy'] = rate + self.pairs[pair]['max_touch'] = last_candle['close'] + self.pairs[pair]['last_candle'] = last_candle + self.pairs[pair]['count_of_buys'] = 1 + self.pairs[pair]['current_profit'] = 0 + self.pairs[pair]['last_max'] = max(last_candle['close'], self.pairs[pair]['last_max']) + self.pairs[pair]['last_min'] = min(last_candle['close'], self.pairs[pair]['last_min']) + + + dispo = round(self.wallets.get_available_stake_amount()) + self.printLineLog() + + stake_amount = self.adjust_stake_amount(pair, last_candle) + + self.pairs[pair]['total_amount'] = stake_amount + self.pairs[pair]['first_amount'] = stake_amount + + self.log_trade( + last_candle=last_candle, + date=current_time, + action=("🟩Buy" if allow_to_buy else "Canceled") + " " + str(minutes), + pair=pair, + rate=rate, + dispo=dispo, + profit=0, + trade_type=entry_tag, + buys=1, + stake=round(stake_amount, 2) + ) + + return allow_to_buy + + def confirm_trade_exit(self, pair: str, trade: Trade, order_type: str, amount: float, rate: float, + time_in_force: str, + exit_reason: str, current_time, **kwargs, ) -> bool: + + # allow_to_sell = (minutes > 30) + dataframe, _ = self.dp.get_analyzed_dataframe(pair, self.timeframe) + last_candle = dataframe.iloc[-1].squeeze() + + minutes = int(round((current_time - trade.open_date_utc).seconds / 60, 0)) + profit =trade.calc_profit(rate) + force = self.pairs[pair]['force_sell'] + allow_to_sell = minutes > 30 and (last_candle['hapercent'] < 0 ) or force or (exit_reason == 'force_exit') or (exit_reason == 'stop_loss') + + if allow_to_sell: + self.trades = list() + self.pairs[pair]['last_count_of_buys'] = trade.nr_of_successful_entries # self.pairs[pair]['count_of_buys'] + self.pairs[pair]['last_sell'] = rate + self.pairs[pair]['last_candle'] = last_candle + self.pairs[pair]['previous_profit'] = 0 + self.trades = list() + dispo = round(self.wallets.get_available_stake_amount()) + # print(f"Sell {pair} {current_time} {exit_reason} dispo={dispo} amount={amount} rate={rate} open_rate={trade.open_rate}") + self.log_trade( + last_candle=last_candle, + date=current_time, + action="🟥Sell " + str(minutes), + pair=pair, + trade_type=exit_reason, + rate=last_candle['close'], + dispo=dispo, + profit=round(profit, 2) + ) + self.pairs[pair]['max_profit'] = 0 + self.pairs[pair]['force_sell'] = False + self.pairs[pair]['has_gain'] = 0 + self.pairs[pair]['current_profit'] = 0 + self.pairs[pair]['total_amount'] = 0 + self.pairs[pair]['count_of_buys'] = 0 + self.pairs[pair]['max_touch'] = 0 + self.pairs[pair]['last_buy'] = 0 + self.pairs[pair]['last_date'] = current_time + self.pairs[pair]['current_trade'] = None + # else: + # self.printLog(f"{current_time} SELL triggered for {pair} ({exit_reason} profit={profit} minutes={minutes} percent={last_candle['hapercent']}) but condition blocked") + return (allow_to_sell) | (exit_reason == 'force_exit') | (exit_reason == 'stop_loss') + + # def custom_exit(self, pair: str, trade: Trade, current_time, current_rate, current_profit, **kwargs): + # + # dataframe, _ = self.dp.get_analyzed_dataframe(pair, self.timeframe) + # last_candle = dataframe.iloc[-1].squeeze() + # last_candle_1h = dataframe.iloc[-13].squeeze() + # before_last_candle = dataframe.iloc[-2].squeeze() + # before_last_candle_2 = dataframe.iloc[-3].squeeze() + # before_last_candle_12 = dataframe.iloc[-13].squeeze() + # + # expected_profit = self.expectedProfit(pair, last_candle) + # # print(f"current_time={current_time} current_profit={current_profit} expected_profit={expected_profit}") + # + # max_touch_before = self.pairs[pair]['max_touch'] + # self.pairs[pair]['last_max'] = max(last_candle['close'], self.pairs[pair]['last_max']) + # self.pairs[pair]['last_min'] = min(last_candle['close'], self.pairs[pair]['last_min']) + # self.pairs[pair]['current_trade'] = trade + # + # count_of_buys = trade.nr_of_successful_entries + # + # profit = trade.calc_profit(current_rate) #round(current_profit * trade.stake_amount, 1) + # self.pairs[pair]['max_profit'] = max(self.pairs[pair]['max_profit'], profit) + # max_profit = last_candle['max5'] #self.pairs[pair]['max_profit'] + # baisse = 0 + # if profit > 0: + # baisse = 1 - (profit / max_profit) + # mx = max_profit / 5 + # self.pairs[pair]['count_of_buys'] = count_of_buys + # self.pairs[pair]['current_profit'] = profit + # + # dispo = round(self.wallets.get_available_stake_amount()) + # hours_since_first_buy = (current_time - trade.open_date_utc).seconds / 3600.0 + # days_since_first_buy = (current_time - trade.open_date_utc).days + # hours = (current_time - trade.date_last_filled_utc).total_seconds() / 3600.0 + # minutes = (current_time - trade.date_last_filled_utc).total_seconds() / 60.0 + # + # if minutes % 4 == 0: + # self.log_trade( + # last_candle=last_candle, + # date=current_time, + # action="🟢 CURRENT", #🔴 CURRENT" if self.pairs[pair]['stop'] or last_candle['stop_buying'] else " + # dispo=dispo, + # pair=pair, + # rate=last_candle['close'], + # trade_type='', + # profit=round(profit, 2), + # buys=count_of_buys, + # stake=0 + # ) + # + # if (last_candle['close'] > last_candle['mid']) or (last_candle['sma5_deriv1'] > 0): + # return None + # + # pair_name = self.getShortName(pair) + # + # if profit > 0.003 * count_of_buys and baisse > 0.30: + # self.pairs[pair]['force_sell'] = False + # self.pairs[pair]['force_buy'] = (self.pairs[pair]['count_of_buys'] - self.pairs[pair]['has_gain'] > 3) + # return str(count_of_buys) + '_' + 'B30_' + pair_name + '_' + str(self.pairs[pair]['has_gain']) + # + # self.pairs[pair]['max_touch'] = max(last_candle['close'], self.pairs[pair]['max_touch']) + + def getShortName(self, pair): + return pair.replace("/USDT", '').replace("/USDC", '').replace("_USDC", '').replace("_USDT", '') + + def getLastLost(self, last_candle, pair): + last_lost = round((last_candle['close'] - self.pairs[pair]['max_touch']) / self.pairs[pair]['max_touch'], 3) + return last_lost + def getPctFirstBuy(self, pair, last_candle): + return round((last_candle['close'] - self.pairs[pair]['first_buy']) / self.pairs[pair]['first_buy'], 3) + + def getPctLastBuy(self, pair, last_candle): + return round((last_candle['close'] - self.pairs[pair]['last_buy']) / self.pairs[pair]['last_buy'], 4) + + def expectedProfit(self, pair: str, last_candle: DataFrame): + lim = 0.01 + pct = 0.002 + if (self.getShortName(pair) == 'BTC'): + lim = 0.005 + pct = 0.001 + pct_to_max = lim + pct * self.pairs[pair]['count_of_buys'] + expected_profit = lim * self.pairs[pair]['total_amount'] # min(3 * lim, max(lim, pct_to_max)) # 0.004 + 0.002 * self.pairs[pair]['count_of_buys'] #min(0.01, first_max) + + self.pairs[pair]['expected_profit'] = expected_profit + + return expected_profit + + def log_trade(self, action, pair, date, trade_type=None, rate=None, dispo=None, profit=None, buys=None, stake=None, + last_candle=None): + # Afficher les colonnes une seule fois + if self.config.get('runmode') == 'hyperopt' or self.dp.runmode.value in ('hyperopt'): + return + if self.columns_logged % 10 == 0: + self.printLog( + f"| {'Date':<16} | {'Action':<10} |{'Pair':<5}| {'Trade Type':<18} |{'Rate':>8} | {'Dispo':>6} | {'Profit':>8} " + f"| {'Pct':>6} | {'max_touch':>11} | {'last_lost':>12} | {'last_max':>7}| {'last_min':>7}|{'Buys':>5}| {'Stake':>5} |" + f"{'rsi':>6}" #|Distmax|s201d|s5_1d|s5_2d|s51h|s52h|smt1h|smt2h|tdc1d|tdc1h" + ) + self.printLineLog() + df = pd.DataFrame.from_dict(self.pairs, orient='index') + colonnes_a_exclure = ['last_candle', + 'trade_info', 'last_date', 'last_count_of_buys', 'base_stake_amount', 'stop_buy'] + df_filtered = df[df['count_of_buys'] > 0].drop(columns=colonnes_a_exclure) + # df_filtered = df_filtered["first_buy", "last_max", "max_touch", "last_sell","last_buy", 'count_of_buys', 'current_profit'] + + self.printLog(df_filtered) + + self.columns_logged += 1 + date = str(date)[:16] if date else "-" + limit = None + rsi = '' + rsi_pct = '' + sma5_1d = '' + sma5_1h = '' + + sma5 = str(sma5_1d) + ' ' + str(sma5_1h) + + last_lost = self.getLastLost(last_candle, pair) + + if buys is None: + buys = '' + + max_touch = '' + pct_max = self.getPctFirstBuy(pair, last_candle) + + total_counts = str(buys) + '/' + str(sum(pair_data['count_of_buys'] for pair_data in self.pairs.values())) + + dist_max = '' + + last_max = int(self.pairs[pair]['last_max']) if self.pairs[pair]['last_max'] > 1 else round( + self.pairs[pair]['last_max'], 3) + last_min = int(self.pairs[pair]['last_min']) if self.pairs[pair]['last_min'] > 1 else round( + self.pairs[pair]['last_min'], 3) + + color = GREEN if profit > 0 else RED + + profit = str(profit) + '/' + str(round(self.pairs[pair]['max_profit'], 2)) + + # 🟢 Dérivée 1 > 0 et dérivée 2 > 0: tendance haussière qui s’accélère. + # 🟡 Dérivée 1 > 0 et dérivée 2 < 0: tendance haussière qui ralentit → essoufflement potentiel. + # 🔴 Dérivée 1 < 0 et dérivée 2 < 0: tendance baissière qui s’accélère. + # 🟠 Dérivée 1 < 0 et dérivée 2 > 0: tendance baissière qui ralentit → possible bottom. + self.printLog( + f"| {date:<16} |{action:<10} | {pair[0:3]:<3} | {trade_type or '-':<18} |{rate or '-':>9}| {dispo or '-':>6} " + f"|{color}{profit or '-':>10}{RESET}| {pct_max or '-':>6} | {round(self.pairs[pair]['max_touch'], 2) or '-':>11} | {last_lost or '-':>12} " + f"| {last_max or '-':>7} | {last_min or '-':>7} |{total_counts or '-':>5}|{stake or '-':>7}" + f"{round(last_candle['max_rsi_24'], 1) or '-' :>6}|{round(last_candle['rsi_1h'], 1) or '-' :>6}|{round(last_candle['rsi_1d'], 1) or '-' :>6}|" + f"{round(last_candle['rtp_1h'] * 100, 0) or '-' :>6}|{round(last_candle['rtp_1d'] * 100, 0) or '-' :>6}|" + + ) + + def printLineLog(self): + # f"sum1h|sum1d|Tdc|Tdh|Tdd| drv1 |drv|drv_1d|" + self.printLog( + f"+{'-' * 18}+{'-' * 12}+{'-' * 5}+{'-' * 20}+{'-' * 9}+{'-' * 8}+{'-' * 12}+{'-' * 8}+{'-' * 13}+{'-' * 14}+{'-' * 9}{'-' * 9}+{'-' * 5}+{'-' * 7}+" + f"+{'-' * 6}+{'-' * 7}+{'-' * 5}+{'-' * 5}+{'-' * 5}+{'-' * 5}+{'-' * 5}+{'-' * 5}+" + ) + + def printLog(self, str): + if self.config.get('runmode') == 'hyperopt' or self.dp.runmode.value in ('hyperopt'): + return; + if not self.dp.runmode.value in ('backtest', 'hyperopt', 'lookahead-analysis'): + logger.info(str) + else: + if not self.dp.runmode.value in ('hyperopt'): + print(str) + + def populate_indicators(self, dataframe: DataFrame, metadata: dict) -> DataFrame: + # Add all ta features + pair = metadata['pair'] + short_pair = self.getShortName(pair) + self.path = f"user_data/plots/{short_pair}/" + ("valide/" if not self.dp.runmode.value in ('backtest') else '') + + heikinashi = qtpylib.heikinashi(dataframe) + dataframe['haopen'] = heikinashi['open'] + dataframe['haclose'] = heikinashi['close'] + dataframe['hapercent'] = (dataframe['haclose'] - dataframe['haopen']) / dataframe['haclose'] + + dataframe['mid'] = dataframe['open'] + (dataframe['close'] - dataframe['open']) / 2 + dataframe['sma5'] = dataframe['mid'].ewm(span=5, adjust=False).mean() #dataframe["mid"].rolling(window=5).mean() + dataframe['sma5_deriv1'] = 1000 * (dataframe['sma5'] - dataframe['sma5'].shift(1)) / dataframe['sma5'].shift(1) + + dataframe['sma24'] = dataframe['mid'].ewm(span=24, adjust=False).mean() + dataframe['sma24_deriv1'] = 1000 * (dataframe['sma24'] - dataframe['sma24'].shift(1)) / dataframe['sma24'].shift(1) + + dataframe['sma60'] = dataframe['mid'].ewm(span=60, adjust=False).mean() + dataframe['sma60_deriv1'] = 1000 * (dataframe['sma60'] - dataframe['sma60'].shift(1)) / dataframe['sma60'].shift(1) + + # dataframe[f"sma5_inv"] = (dataframe[f"sma5"].shift(2) >= dataframe[f"sma5"].shift(1)) \ + # & (dataframe[f"sma5"].shift(1) <= dataframe[f"sma5"]) + + dataframe["sma5_sqrt"] = ( + np.sqrt(np.abs(dataframe["sma5"] - dataframe["sma5"].shift(1))) + + np.sqrt(np.abs(dataframe["sma5"].shift(3) - dataframe["sma5"].shift(1))) + ) + dataframe["sma5_inv"] = ( + (dataframe["sma5"].shift(2) >= dataframe["sma5"].shift(1)) + & (dataframe["sma5"].shift(1) <= dataframe["sma5"]) + & (dataframe["sma5_sqrt"] > 5) + ) + + dataframe["percent"] = dataframe['mid'].pct_change() + dataframe["percent3"] = dataframe['mid'].pct_change(3).rolling(3).mean() + dataframe["percent12"] = dataframe['mid'].pct_change(12).rolling(12).mean() + dataframe["percent24"] = dataframe['mid'].pct_change(24).rolling(24).mean() + + dataframe['rsi'] = talib.RSI(dataframe['mid'], timeperiod=14) + self.calculeDerivees(dataframe, 'rsi', ema_period=12) + dataframe['max_rsi_12'] = talib.MAX(dataframe['rsi'], timeperiod=12) + dataframe['max_rsi_24'] = talib.MAX(dataframe['rsi'], timeperiod=24) + dataframe['max5'] = talib.MAX(dataframe['mid'], timeperiod=5) + dataframe['min180'] = talib.MIN(dataframe['mid'], timeperiod=180) + dataframe['max180'] = talib.MAX(dataframe['mid'], timeperiod=180) + dataframe['pct180'] = ((dataframe["mid"] - dataframe['min180'] ) / (dataframe['max180'] - dataframe['min180'] )) + + dataframe = self.rsi_trend_probability(dataframe, short=60, long=360) + + # ################### INFORMATIVE 1h + informative = self.dp.get_pair_dataframe(pair=metadata['pair'], timeframe='1h') + informative['mid'] = informative['open'] + (informative['close'] - informative['open']) / 2 + # informative = self.populate1hIndicators(df=informative, metadata=metadata) + informative['rsi'] = talib.RSI(informative['mid'], timeperiod=14) + self.calculeDerivees(informative, 'rsi', ema_period=12) + informative = self.rsi_trend_probability(informative) + # informative = self.calculateRegression(informative, 'mid', lookback=15) + dataframe = merge_informative_pair(dataframe, informative, '1m', '1h', ffill=True) + + # ################### INFORMATIVE 1d + informative = self.dp.get_pair_dataframe(pair=metadata['pair'], timeframe='1d') + informative['mid'] = informative['open'] + (informative['close'] - informative['open']) / 2 + informative['rsi'] = talib.RSI(informative['mid'], timeperiod=5) + informative = self.rsi_trend_probability(informative) + # informative = self.calculateRegression(informative, 'mid', lookback=15) + dataframe = merge_informative_pair(dataframe, informative, '1m', '1d', ffill=True) + + dataframe['last_price'] = dataframe['close'] + dataframe['first_price'] = dataframe['close'] + if self.dp: + if self.dp.runmode.value in ('live', 'dry_run'): + self.getOpenTrades() + + for trade in self.trades: + if trade.pair != pair: + continue + filled_buys = trade.select_filled_orders('buy') + count = 0 + amount = 0 + for buy in filled_buys: + if count == 0: + dataframe['first_price'] = buy.price + self.pairs[pair]['first_buy'] = buy.price + self.pairs[pair]['first_amount'] = buy.price * buy.filled + # dataframe['close01'] = buy.price * 1.01 + + # Order(id=2396, trade=1019, order_id=29870026652, side=buy, filled=0.00078, price=63921.01, + # status=closed, date=2024-08-26 02:20:11) + dataframe['last_price'] = buy.price + self.pairs[pair]['last_buy'] = buy.price + count = count + 1 + amount += buy.price * buy.filled + count_buys = count + self.pairs[pair]['total_amount'] = amount + + dataframe['absolute_min'] = dataframe['mid'].rolling(1440, min_periods=1).min() + dataframe['absolute_max'] = dataframe['mid'].rolling(1440, min_periods=1).max() + # steps = (dataframe['absolute_max'] - dataframe['absolute_min']) / (dataframe['absolute_min'] * 0.01) + # levels = [dataframe['absolute_min'] * (1 + i / 100) for i in range(1, steps + 1)] + # + # print(levels) + + ########################################################### + # Bollinger Bands + bollinger = qtpylib.bollinger_bands(qtpylib.typical_price(dataframe), window=20, stds=2) + dataframe['bb_lowerband'] = bollinger['lower'] + dataframe['bb_middleband'] = bollinger['mid'] + dataframe['bb_upperband'] = bollinger['upper'] + dataframe["bb_percent"] = ( + (dataframe["close"] - dataframe["bb_lowerband"]) / + (dataframe["bb_upperband"] - dataframe["bb_lowerband"]) + ) + dataframe["bb_width"] = (dataframe["bb_upperband"] - dataframe["bb_lowerband"]) / dataframe["sma24"] + + + # Calcul MACD + macd, macdsignal, macdhist = talib.MACD( + dataframe['close'], + fastperiod=12, + slowperiod=26, + signalperiod=9 + ) + + # | Nom | Formule / définition | Signification | + # | ---------------------------- | ------------------------------------------- | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | + # | **MACD** (`macd`) | `EMA_fast - EMA_slow` (ex : 12-26 périodes) | Montre l’écart entre la moyenne courte et la moyenne longue.
- Positive → tendance haussière
- Négative → tendance baissière | + # | **Signal** (`macdsignal`) | `EMA_9(MACD)` | Sert de ligne de **signal de déclenchement**.
- Croisement du MACD au-dessus → signal d’achat
- Croisement du MACD en dessous → signal de vente | + # | **Histogramme** (`macdhist`) | `MACD - Signal` | Montre la **force et l’accélération** de la tendance.
- Positif et croissant → tendance haussière qui s’accélère
- Positif mais décroissant → ralentissement de la hausse
- Négatif et décroissant → baisse qui s’accélère
- Négatif mais croissant → ralentissement de la baisse | + + # Ajouter dans le dataframe + dataframe['macd'] = macd + dataframe['macdsignal'] = macdsignal + dataframe['macdhist'] = macdhist + + # Regarde dans le futur + # # --- Rendre relatif sur chaque série (-1 → 1) --- + # for col in ['macd', 'macdsignal', 'macdhist']: + # series = dataframe[col] + # valid = series[~np.isnan(series)] # ignorer NaN + # min_val = valid.min() + # max_val = valid.max() + # span = max_val - min_val if max_val != min_val else 1 + # dataframe[f'{col}_rel'] = 2 * ((series - min_val) / span) - 1 + # + # dataframe['tdc_macd'] = self.macd_tendance_int( + # dataframe, + # macd_col='macd_rel', + # signal_col='macdsignal_rel', + # hist_col='macdhist_rel' + # ) + + # ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ + # rolling SMA indicators (used for trend detection too) + s_short = self.DEFAULT_PARAMS['sma_short'] + s_long = self.DEFAULT_PARAMS['sma_long'] + + dataframe[f'sma_{s_short}'] = dataframe['close'].rolling(window=s_short).mean() + dataframe[f'sma_{s_long}'] = dataframe['close'].rolling(window=s_long).mean() + + # --- pente brute --- + dataframe['slope'] = dataframe['sma24'].diff() + + # --- lissage EMA --- + dataframe['slope_smooth'] = dataframe['slope'].ewm(span=10, adjust=False).mean() + + # # RSI + # window = 14 + # delta = dataframe['close'].diff() + # up = delta.clip(lower=0) + # down = -1 * delta.clip(upper=0) + # ma_up = up.rolling(window=window).mean() + # ma_down = down.rolling(window=window).mean() + # rs = ma_up / ma_down.replace(0, 1e-9) + # dataframe['rsi'] = 100 - (100 / (1 + rs)) + # + # # EMA example + # dataframe['ema'] = dataframe['close'].ewm(span=self.DEFAULT_PARAMS['ema_period'], adjust=False).mean() + # + # # ATR (simple implementation) + # high_low = dataframe['high'] - dataframe['low'] + # high_close = (dataframe['high'] - dataframe['close'].shift()).abs() + # low_close = (dataframe['low'] - dataframe['close'].shift()).abs() + # tr = DataFrame({'hl': high_low, 'hc': high_close, 'lc': low_close}).max(axis=1) + # dataframe['atr'] = tr.rolling(window=self.DEFAULT_PARAMS['atr_period']).mean() + + ########################### + # df = ton DataFrame OHLCV avec colonnes: open, high, low, close, volume + # Assure-toi qu'il est trié par date croissante + timeframe = self.timeframe + # --- Volatilité normalisée --- + dataframe['atr'] = ta.volatility.AverageTrueRange( + high=dataframe['high'], low=dataframe['low'], close=dataframe['close'], window=14 + ).average_true_range() + dataframe['atr_norm'] = dataframe['atr'] / dataframe['close'] + + # --- Force de tendance --- + dataframe['adx'] = ta.trend.ADXIndicator( + high=dataframe['high'], low=dataframe['low'], close=dataframe['close'], window=14 + ).adx() + + # --- Volume directionnel (On Balance Volume) --- + dataframe['obv'] = ta.volume.OnBalanceVolumeIndicator( + close=dataframe['close'], volume=dataframe['volume'] + ).on_balance_volume() + self.calculeDerivees(dataframe, 'obv', ema_period=1) + + dataframe['obv5'] = ta.volume.OnBalanceVolumeIndicator( + close=dataframe['sma5'], volume=dataframe['volume'].rolling(5).sum() + ).on_balance_volume() + self.calculeDerivees(dataframe, 'obv5', ema_period=5) + + # --- Volatilité récente (écart-type des rendements) --- + dataframe['vol_24'] = dataframe['percent'].rolling(24).std() + + # Compter les baisses / hausses consécutives + # self.calculateDownAndUp(dataframe, limit=0.0001) + + # df : ton dataframe OHLCV + indicateurs existants + # Assurez-vous que les colonnes suivantes existent : + # 'max_rsi_12', 'roc_24', 'bb_percent_1h' + + # --- Filtrage des NaN initiaux --- + # dataframe = dataframe.dropna() + + dataframe['rsi_slope'] = dataframe['rsi'].diff(3) / 3 # vitesse moyenne du RSI + dataframe['adx_change'] = dataframe['adx'] - dataframe['adx'].shift(12) # évolution de la tendance + dataframe['volatility_ratio'] = dataframe['atr_norm'] / dataframe['bb_width'] + + dataframe["rsi_diff"] = dataframe["rsi"] - dataframe["rsi"].shift(3) + dataframe["slope_ratio"] = dataframe["sma5_deriv1"] / (dataframe["sma60_deriv1"] + 1e-9) + dataframe["divergence"] = (dataframe["rsi_deriv1"] * dataframe["sma5_deriv1"]) < 0 + + ########################################################### + # print(f"min={dataframe['absolute_min'].min()} max={dataframe['absolute_max'].max()}") + for i in [0, 1, 2, 3]: + dataframe[f"lvl_{i}_pct"] = dataframe['absolute_min'] * (1 + 0.01 * i) + + self.model_indicators = self.listUsableColumns(dataframe) + + if False and self.dp.runmode.value in ('backtest'): + self.trainModel(dataframe, metadata) + + short_pair = self.getShortName(pair) + + self.model = joblib.load(f"{short_pair}_rf_model.pkl") + + # Préparer les features pour la prédiction + features = dataframe[self.model_indicators].fillna(0) + + # Prédiction : probabilité que le prix monte + probs = self.model.predict_proba(features)[:, 1] + + # Sauvegarder la probabilité pour l’analyse + dataframe['ml_prob'] = probs + + if False and self.dp.runmode.value in ('backtest'): + self.inspect_model(self.model) + + # + # absolute_min = dataframe['absolute_min'].min() + # absolute_max = dataframe['absolute_max'].max() + # + # # Écart total + # diff = absolute_max - absolute_min + # + # # Nombre de lignes intermédiaires (1% steps) + # steps = int((absolute_max - absolute_min) / (absolute_min * 0.01)) + # + # # Niveaux de prix à 1%, 2%, ..., steps% + # levels = [absolute_min * (1 + i / 100) for i in range(1, steps + 1)] + # levels = [lvl for lvl in levels if lvl < absolute_max] # évite le dernier niveau exact + # + # # ajout dans le DataFrame + # for i, lvl in enumerate(levels, start=1): + # dataframe[f"lvl_{i}_pct"] = lvl + + # # Indices correspondants + # indices = [(dataframe['mid'] - lvl).abs().idxmin() for lvl in levels] + + return dataframe + + def getOpenTrades(self): + # if len(self.trades) == 0: + self.trades = Trade.get_open_trades() + return self.trades + + # def populate_buy_trend(self, dataframe: DataFrame, metadata: dict) -> DataFrame: + # dataframe.loc[ + # ( + # # (dataframe['sma5_inv'] == 1) + # ( + # (dataframe['pct180'] < 0.5) | + # ( + # (dataframe['close'] < dataframe['sma60'] ) + # & (dataframe['sma24_deriv1'] > 0) + # ) + # ) + # # & (dataframe['hapercent'] > 0) + # # & (dataframe['sma24_deriv1'] > - 0.03) + # & (dataframe['ml_prob'] > 0.1) + # # & ( + # # (dataframe['percent3'] <= -0.003) + # # | (dataframe['percent12'] <= -0.003) + # # | (dataframe['percent24'] <= -0.003) + # # ) + # ), ['enter_long', 'enter_tag']] = (1, f"future") + # + # dataframe['test'] = np.where(dataframe['enter_long'] == 1, dataframe['close'] * 1.003, np.nan) + # + # return dataframe + + def populate_buy_trend(self, dataframe: DataFrame, metadata: dict) -> DataFrame: + """ + Buy when the model predicts a high upside probability/value. + This method loads the ML model, generates predictions, and + triggers a buy if the predicted value exceeds a learned threshold. + """ + + # # Ensure prediction column exists + # if "ml_prediction" not in dataframe.columns: + # # Generate predictions on the fly + # # (your model must already be loaded in self.model) + # features = self.ml_features # list of feature column names + # dataframe["ml_prediction"] = self.model.predict(dataframe[features].fillna(0)) + + # Choose threshold automatically based on training statistics + # or a fixed value discovered by SHAP / PDP + # threshold = 0.4 #self.buy_threshold # ex: 0.80 or 1.10 depending on your model + + # 20% des signaux les plus forts + threshold = np.percentile(dataframe["ml_prob"], 80) + + # Buy = prediction > threshold + dataframe["buy"] = 0 + dataframe.loc[dataframe["ml_prob"] > threshold, ['enter_long', 'enter_tag']] = (1, f"future") + dataframe['test'] = np.where(dataframe['enter_long'] == 1, dataframe['close'] * 1.003, np.nan) + + return dataframe + + # def populate_buy_trend(self, dataframe: DataFrame, metadata: dict) -> DataFrame: + # """ + # Populate buy signals based on SHAP/PDP insights: + # - strong momentum: macdhist high and macd > macdsignal + # - rsi elevated (but not extreme) + # - positive sma24 derivative above threshold + # - price above sma60 (trend context) + # - price in upper region of Bollinger (bb_percent high) + # - volume/obv filter and volatility guard (obv_dist, atr) + # Returns dataframe with column 'buy' (1 = buy signal). + # """ + # + # # Ensure column existence (fallback to zeros if missing) + # cols = [ + # "macdhist", "macd", "macdsignal", "rsi", "rsi_short", + # "sma24_deriv1", "sma60", "bb_percent", + # "obv_dist", "atr", "percent", "open_1h", "absolute_min" + # ] + # for c in cols: + # if c not in dataframe.columns: + # dataframe[c] = 0.0 + # + # # Thresholds (tune these) + # TH_MACDHIST = 8.0 # macdhist considered "strong" (example) + # TH_MACD_POS = 0.0 # macd must be > 0 (positive momentum) + # TH_SMA24_DERIV = 0.05 # sma24 derivative threshold where effect appears + # TH_RSI_LOW = 52.0 # lower bound to consider bullish RSI + # TH_RSI_HIGH = 85.0 # upper bound to avoid extreme overbought (optional) + # TH_BB_PERCENT = 0.7 # in upper band (0..1) + # TH_OBV_DIST = -40.0 # accept small negative OBV distance, reject very negative + # MAX_ATR = None # optional: maximum ATR to avoid extreme volatility (None = off) + # MIN_PRICE_ABOVE_SMA60 = 0.0 # require price > sma60 (price - sma60 > 0) + # + # price = dataframe["close"] + # + # # Momentum conditions + # cond_macdhist = dataframe["macdhist"] >= TH_MACDHIST + # cond_macd_pos = dataframe["macd"] > TH_MACD_POS + # cond_macd_vs_signal = dataframe["macd"] > dataframe["macdsignal"] + # + # # RSI condition (accept moderate-high RSI) + # cond_rsi = (dataframe["rsi"] >= TH_RSI_LOW) & (dataframe["rsi"] <= TH_RSI_HIGH) + # + # # SMA24 derivative: require momentum above threshold + # cond_sma24 = dataframe["sma24_deriv1"] >= TH_SMA24_DERIV + # + # # Price above SMA60 (trend filter) + # cond_above_sma60 = (price - dataframe["sma60"]) > MIN_PRICE_ABOVE_SMA60 + # + # # Bollinger band percent (price in upper region) + # cond_bb = dataframe["bb_percent"] >= TH_BB_PERCENT + # + # # Volume/OBV prudence filter + # cond_obv = dataframe["obv_dist"] >= TH_OBV_DIST + # + # # Optional ATR guard + # if MAX_ATR is not None: + # cond_atr = dataframe["atr"] <= MAX_ATR + # else: + # cond_atr = np.ones_like(dataframe["atr"], dtype=bool) + # + # # Optional additional guards (avoid tiny percent moves or weird opens) + # cond_percent = np.abs(dataframe["percent"]) > 0.0005 # ignore almost-no-move bars + # cond_open = True # keep as placeholder; you can add open_1h relative checks + # + # # Combine into a buy signal + # buy_condition = ( + # cond_macdhist & + # cond_macd_pos & + # cond_macd_vs_signal & + # cond_rsi & + # cond_sma24 & + # cond_above_sma60 & + # cond_bb & + # cond_obv & + # cond_atr & + # cond_percent + # ) + # + # # Finalize: set buy column (0/1) + # dataframe.loc[buy_condition, ['enter_long', 'enter_tag']] = (1, f"future") + # # dataframe.loc[~buy_condition, "buy"] = 0 + # + # dataframe['test'] = np.where(dataframe['enter_long'] == 1, dataframe['close'] * 1.003, np.nan) + # + # return dataframe + + def populate_sell_trend(self, dataframe: DataFrame, metadata: dict) -> DataFrame: + + return dataframe + + # def adjust_stake_amount(self, pair: str, last_candle: DataFrame): + # # Calculer le minimum des 14 derniers jours + # nb_pairs = len(self.dp.current_whitelist()) + # + # base_stake_amount = self.config.get('stake_amount') + # + # if True : #self.pairs[pair]['count_of_buys'] == 0: + # factor = 1 #65 / min(65, last_candle['rsi_1d']) + # # if last_candle['min_max_60'] > 0.04: + # # factor = 2 + # + # adjusted_stake_amount = base_stake_amount #max(base_stake_amount / 5, base_stake_amount * factor) + # else: + # adjusted_stake_amount = self.pairs[pair]['first_amount'] + # + # if self.pairs[pair]['count_of_buys'] == 0: + # self.pairs[pair]['first_amount'] = adjusted_stake_amount + # + # return adjusted_stake_amount + + def adjust_stake_amount(self, pair: str, last_candle: DataFrame): + + ath = max(self.pairs[pair]['last_max'], self.get_last_ath_before_candle(last_candle)) + + ath_dist = 100 * (ath - last_candle["mid"]) / ath + + # ath_dist + # 0 ==> 1 + # 20 ==> 1.5 + # 40 ==> 2 + # 50 * (1 + (ath_dist / 40)) + base_stake = self.config.get('stake_amount') * (1 + (ath_dist / 40)) + + # Calcule max/min 180 + low180 = last_candle["min180"] + high180 = last_candle["max180"] + + mult = 1 - ((last_candle["mid"] - low180) / (high180 - low180)) + + print(f"low={low180} mid={last_candle['mid']} high={high180} mult={mult} ath={ath} ath_dist={round(ath_dist, 2)}" ) + # base_size = montant de base que tu veux utiliser (ex: stake_amount ou autre) + base_size = base_stake # exemple fraction du portefeuille; adapte selon ton code + # new stake proportionnel à mult + new_stake = base_size #* mult + return new_stake + + def adjust_trade_position(self, trade: Trade, current_time: datetime, + current_rate: float, current_profit: float, min_stake: float, + max_stake: float, **kwargs): + # ne rien faire si ordre deja en cours + if trade.has_open_orders: + # self.printLog("skip open orders") + return None + if (self.wallets.get_available_stake_amount() < 10): # or trade.stake_amount >= max_stake: + return 0 + + dataframe, _ = self.dp.get_analyzed_dataframe(trade.pair, self.timeframe) + last_candle = dataframe.iloc[-1].squeeze() + before_last_candle = dataframe.iloc[-2].squeeze() + # prépare les données + current_time = current_time.astimezone(timezone.utc) + open_date = trade.open_date.astimezone(timezone.utc) + dispo = round(self.wallets.get_available_stake_amount()) + hours_since_first_buy = (current_time - trade.open_date_utc).seconds / 3600.0 + days_since_first_buy = (current_time - trade.open_date_utc).days + hours = (current_time - trade.date_last_filled_utc).total_seconds() / 3600.0 + count_of_buys = trade.nr_of_successful_entries + current_time_utc = current_time.astimezone(timezone.utc) + open_date = trade.open_date.astimezone(timezone.utc) + days_since_open = (current_time_utc - open_date).days + pair = trade.pair + profit = trade.calc_profit(current_rate) #round(current_profit * trade.stake_amount, 1) + last_lost = self.getLastLost(last_candle, pair) + pct_first = 0 + + total_counts = sum( + pair_data['count_of_buys'] for pair_data in self.pairs.values() if not self.getShortName(pair) == 'BTC') + + if self.pairs[pair]['first_buy']: + pct_first = self.getPctFirstBuy(pair, last_candle) + + lim = 0.3 + if (len(dataframe) < 1): + # self.printLog("skip dataframe") + return None + + # Dernier prix d'achat réel (pas le prix moyen) + last_fill_price = self.pairs[trade.pair]['last_buy'] #trade.open_rate # remplacé juste après ↓ + + # if len(trade.orders) > 0: + # # On cherche le dernier BUY exécuté + # buy_orders = [o for o in trade.orders if o.is_buy and o.status == "closed"] + # if buy_orders: + # last_fill_price = buy_orders[-1].price + + # baisse relative + dca_threshold = 0.0025 * count_of_buys + decline = (last_fill_price - current_rate) / last_fill_price + increase = - decline + + # if decline >= self.dca_threshold: + # # Exemple : on achète 50% du montant du dernier trade + # last_amount = buy_orders[-1].amount if buy_orders else 0 + # stake_amount = last_amount * current_rate * 0.5 + # return stake_amount + + condition = last_candle['hapercent'] > 0 and last_candle['sma24_deriv1'] > 0 + limit_buy = 40 + # or (last_candle['close'] <= last_candle['min180'] and hours > 3) + if (decline >= dca_threshold) and condition: + try: + if self.pairs[pair]['has_gain'] and profit > 0: + self.pairs[pair]['force_sell'] = True + self.pairs[pair]['previous_profit'] = profit + return None + + max_amount = self.config.get('stake_amount') * 2.5 + stake_amount = min(min(max_amount, self.wallets.get_available_stake_amount()), + self.adjust_stake_amount(pair, last_candle)) + # print(f"profit={profit} previous={self.pairs[pair]['previous_profit']} count_of_buys={trade.nr_of_successful_entries}") + if stake_amount > 0: + self.pairs[pair]['previous_profit'] = profit + trade_type = "Loss " + (last_candle['enter_tag'] if last_candle['enter_long'] == 1 else '') + self.pairs[trade.pair]['count_of_buys'] += 1 + self.pairs[pair]['total_amount'] += stake_amount + self.log_trade( + last_candle=last_candle, + date=current_time, + action="🟧 Loss -", + dispo=dispo, + pair=trade.pair, + rate=current_rate, + trade_type=trade_type, + profit=round(profit, 1), + buys=trade.nr_of_successful_entries + 1, + stake=round(stake_amount, 2) + ) + + self.pairs[trade.pair]['last_buy'] = current_rate + self.pairs[trade.pair]['max_touch'] = last_candle['close'] + self.pairs[trade.pair]['last_candle'] = last_candle + + # df = pd.DataFrame.from_dict(self.pairs, orient='index') + # colonnes_a_exclure = ['last_candle', 'stop', + # 'trade_info', 'last_date', 'expected_profit', 'last_count_of_buys', 'base_stake_amount', 'stop_buy'] + # df_filtered = df[df['count_of_buys'] > 0].drop(columns=colonnes_a_exclure) + # # df_filtered = df_filtered["first_buy", "last_max", "max_touch", "last_sell","last_buy", 'count_of_buys', 'current_profit'] + # + # self.printLog(df_filtered) + + return stake_amount + return None + except Exception as exception: + self.printLog(exception) + return None + + if current_profit > dca_threshold and (increase >= dca_threshold and self.wallets.get_available_stake_amount() > 0): + try: + self.pairs[pair]['previous_profit'] = profit + stake_amount = max(20, min(self.wallets.get_available_stake_amount(), self.adjust_stake_amount(pair, last_candle))) + if stake_amount > 0: + self.pairs[pair]['has_gain'] += 1 + + trade_type = 'Gain +' + (last_candle['enter_tag'] if last_candle['enter_long'] == 1 else '') + self.pairs[trade.pair]['count_of_buys'] += 1 + self.pairs[pair]['total_amount'] += stake_amount + self.log_trade( + last_candle=last_candle, + date=current_time, + action="🟡 Gain +", + dispo=dispo, + pair=trade.pair, + rate=current_rate, + trade_type='Gain', + profit=round(profit, 1), + buys=trade.nr_of_successful_entries + 1, + stake=round(stake_amount, 2) + ) + self.pairs[trade.pair]['last_buy'] = current_rate + self.pairs[trade.pair]['max_touch'] = last_candle['close'] + self.pairs[trade.pair]['last_candle'] = last_candle + return stake_amount + return None + except Exception as exception: + self.printLog(exception) + return None + + return None + + def custom_exit(self, pair, trade, current_time, current_rate, current_profit, **kwargs): + + dataframe, _ = self.dp.get_analyzed_dataframe(pair, self.timeframe) + last_candle = dataframe.iloc[-1].squeeze() + last_candle_1h = dataframe.iloc[-13].squeeze() + before_last_candle = dataframe.iloc[-2].squeeze() + before_last_candle_2 = dataframe.iloc[-3].squeeze() + before_last_candle_12 = dataframe.iloc[-13].squeeze() + + expected_profit = self.expectedProfit(pair, last_candle) + # print(f"current_time={current_time} current_profit={current_profit} expected_profit={expected_profit}") + + # ----- 1) Charger les variables de trailing pour ce trade ----- + max_price = self.pairs[pair]['max_touch'] + + self.pairs[pair]['last_max'] = max(last_candle['close'], self.pairs[pair]['last_max']) + self.pairs[pair]['last_min'] = min(last_candle['close'], self.pairs[pair]['last_min']) + self.pairs[pair]['current_trade'] = trade + + count_of_buys = trade.nr_of_successful_entries + + profit = trade.calc_profit(current_rate) #round(current_profit * trade.stake_amount, 1) + + if current_profit > 0: + self.pairs[pair]['max_profit'] = max(self.pairs[pair]['max_profit'], profit) + # else: + # self.pairs[pair]['max_profit'] = 0 + + max_profit = self.pairs[pair]['max_profit'] + + # if current_profit > 0: + # print(f"profit={profit} max_profit={max_profit} current_profit={current_profit}") + + baisse = 0 + if profit > 0: + baisse = 1 - (profit / max_profit) + mx = max_profit / 5 + self.pairs[pair]['count_of_buys'] = count_of_buys + self.pairs[pair]['current_profit'] = profit + + dispo = round(self.wallets.get_available_stake_amount()) + hours_since_first_buy = (current_time - trade.open_date_utc).seconds / 3600.0 + days_since_first_buy = (current_time - trade.open_date_utc).days + hours = (current_time - trade.date_last_filled_utc).total_seconds() / 3600.0 + minutes = (current_time - trade.date_last_filled_utc).total_seconds() / 60.0 + + # ----- 2) Mise à jour du max_price ----- + self.pairs[pair]['max_touch'] = max(last_candle['close'], self.pairs[pair]['max_touch']) + + # ----- 3) Calcul du profit max atteint ----- + # profit_max = (max_price - trade.open_rate) / trade.open_rate + + current_trailing_stop_positive = self.trailing_stop_positive + current_trailing_only_offset_is_reached = self.trailing_only_offset_is_reached + current_trailing_stop_positive_offset = self.trailing_stop_positive_offset + + max_ = last_candle['max180'] + min_ = last_candle['min180'] + mid = last_candle['mid'] + # éviter division par zéro + position = (mid - min_) / (max_ - min_) + zone = int(position * 3) # 0 à 2 + + if zone == 0: + current_trailing_stop_positive = self.trailing_stop_positive + current_trailing_stop_positive_offset = self.trailing_stop_positive_offset * 2 + if minutes > 1440: + current_trailing_only_offset_is_reached = False + current_trailing_stop_positive_offset = self.trailing_stop_positive_offset + # if zone == 1: + + # ----- 5) Calcul du trailing stop dynamique ----- + # Exemple : offset=0.321 => stop à +24.8% + + trailing_stop = max_profit * (1.0 - current_trailing_stop_positive) + baisse = 0 + if max_profit: + baisse = (max_profit - profit) / max_profit + + if minutes % 12 == 0: + self.log_trade( + last_candle=last_candle, + date=current_time, + action="🟢 CURRENT", #🔴 CURRENT" if self.pairs[pair]['stop'] or last_candle['stop_buying'] else " + dispo=dispo, + pair=pair, + rate=last_candle['close'], + trade_type=f"{round(profit, 2)} {round(max_profit, 2)} {round(trailing_stop,2)} {minutes}", + profit=round(profit, 2), + buys=count_of_buys, + stake=0 + ) + + if last_candle['ml_prob'] > 0.5: + return None + # if last_candle['sma24_deriv1'] > 0 : #and minutes < 180 and baisse < 30: # and last_candle['sma5_deriv1'] > -0.15: + # if (minutes < 180): + # return None + # if (minutes > 1440 and last_candle['sma60_deriv1'] > 0) : + # return None + + + # ----- 4) OFFSET : faut-il attendre de dépasser trailing_stop_positive_offset ? ----- + if current_trailing_only_offset_is_reached: + # Max profit pas atteint ET perte < 2 * current_trailing_stop_positive + if max_profit < min(2, current_trailing_stop_positive_offset * (count_of_buys - self.pairs[pair]['has_gain']))\ + and (max_profit > current_trailing_stop_positive_offset): #2 * current_trailing_stop_positive: + return None # ne pas activer le trailing encore + # Sinon : trailing actif dès le début + + # ----- 6) Condition de vente ----- + if 0 < profit <= trailing_stop and last_candle['mid'] < last_candle['sma5']: + return f"stop_{count_of_buys}_{self.pairs[pair]['has_gain']}" + return None + + def informative_pairs(self): + # get access to all pairs available in whitelist. + pairs = self.dp.current_whitelist() + informative_pairs = [(pair, '1h') for pair in pairs] + informative_pairs += [(pair, '1d') for pair in pairs] + + return informative_pairs + + def populate1hIndicators(self, df: pd.DataFrame, metadata: dict) -> pd.DataFrame: + + # --- WEEKLY LEVELS --- + # semaine précédente = semaine ISO différente + df["week"] = df.index.isocalendar().week + df["year"] = df.index.year + + df["weekly_low"] = ( + df.groupby(["year", "week"])["low"] + .transform("min") + .shift(1) # décalé -> pas regarder la semaine en cours + ) + df["weekly_high"] = ( + df.groupby(["year", "week"])["high"] + .transform("max") + .shift(1) + ) + + # Définition simple d'une zone de demande hebdo : + # bas + 25% de la bougie => modifiable + df["weekly_demand_zone_low"] = df["weekly_low"] + df["weekly_demand_zone_high"] = df["weekly_low"] * 1.025 + + # --- MONTHLY LEVELS --- + df["month"] = df.index.month + + df["monthly_low"] = ( + df.groupby(["year", "month"])["low"] + .transform("min") + .shift(1) # mois précédent uniquement + ) + df["monthly_high"] = ( + df.groupby(["year", "month"])["high"] + .transform("max") + .shift(1) + ) + + df["monthly_demand_zone_low"] = df["monthly_low"] + df["monthly_demand_zone_high"] = df["monthly_low"] * 1.03 + + return df + + # ----- SIGNALS SIMPLES POUR EXEMPLE ----- + + # def populate_buy_trend(self, df: pd.DataFrame, metadata: dict) -> pd.DataFrame: + # df["buy"] = 0 + # + # # Exemple : acheter si le prix tape la zone de demande hebdomadaire + # df.loc[ + # (df["close"] <= df["weekly_demand_zone_high"]) & + # (df["close"] >= df["weekly_demand_zone_low"]), + # "buy" + # ] = 1 + # + # return df + # + # def populate_sell_trend(self, df: pd.DataFrame, metadata: dict) -> pd.DataFrame: + # df["sell"] = 0 + # + # # Exemple : vendre sur retour au weekly_high précédent + # df.loc[df["close"] >= df["weekly_high"], "sell"] = 1 + # + # return df + + + def rsi_trend_probability(self, dataframe, short=6, long=12): + dataframe = dataframe.copy() + + dataframe['rsi_short'] = talib.RSI(dataframe['mid'], short) + dataframe['rsi_long'] = talib.RSI(dataframe['mid'], long) + + dataframe['cross_soft'] = np.tanh((dataframe['rsi_short'] - dataframe['rsi_long']) / 7) + + dataframe['gap'] = (dataframe['rsi_short'] - dataframe['rsi_long']) / 100 + dataframe['trend'] = (dataframe['rsi_long'] - 50) / 50 + + dataframe['rtp'] = ( + 0.6 * dataframe['cross_soft'] + + 0.25 * dataframe['gap'] + + 0.15 * dataframe['trend'] + ).clip(-1, 1) + + return dataframe + + import pandas as pd + + def to_utc_ts(self, x): + return pd.to_datetime(x, utc=True) + + # suppose self.btc_ath_history exists (liste de dict) + def get_last_ath_before_candle(self, last_candle): + candle_date = self.to_utc_ts(last_candle['date']) # ou to_utc_ts(last_candle.name) + best = None + for a in self.btc_ath_history: #getattr(self, "btc_ath_history", []): + ath_date = self.to_utc_ts(a["date"]) + if ath_date <= candle_date: + if best is None or ath_date > best[0]: + best = (ath_date, a["price_usd"]) + return best[1] if best is not None else None + + def trainModel(self, dataframe: DataFrame, metadata: dict): + pair = self.getShortName(metadata['pair']) + pd.set_option('display.max_rows', None) + pd.set_option('display.max_columns', None) + pd.set_option("display.width", 200) + path=f"user_data/plots/{pair}/" + os.makedirs(path, exist_ok=True) + + # # Étape 1 : sélectionner numériques + # numeric_cols = dataframe.select_dtypes(include=['int64', 'float64']).columns + # + # # Étape 2 : enlever constantes + # usable_cols = [c for c in numeric_cols if dataframe[c].nunique() > 1 + # and (not c.endswith("_state") and not c.endswith("_1h") and not c.endswith("_1d") + # and not c.endswith("_class") and not c.endswith("_price") + # and not c.startswith('stop_buying'))] + # + # # Étape 3 : remplacer inf et NaN par 0 + # dataframe[usable_cols] = dataframe[usable_cols].replace([np.inf, -np.inf], 0).fillna(0) + # + # print("Colonnes utilisables pour le modèle :") + # print(usable_cols) + # + # self.model_indicators = usable_cols + # + df = dataframe[self.model_indicators].copy() + + # Corrélations des colonnes + corr = df.corr(numeric_only=True) + print("Corrélation des colonnes") + print(corr) + + # 3️⃣ Créer la cible : 1 si le prix monte dans les prochaines bougies + # df['target'] = (df['sma24'].shift(-24) > df['sma24']).astype(int) + df['target'] = ((df["sma24"].shift(-13) - df["sma24"]) > 0).astype(int) + df['target'] = df['target'].fillna(0).astype(int) + + # Corrélations triées par importance avec une colonne cible + target_corr = df.corr(numeric_only=True)["target"].sort_values(ascending=False) + print("Corrélations triées par importance avec une colonne cible") + print(target_corr) + + # Corrélations triées par importance avec une colonne cible + corr = df.corr(numeric_only=True) + corr_unstacked = ( + corr.unstack() + .reset_index() + .rename(columns={"level_0": "col1", "level_1": "col2", 0: "corr"}) + ) + # Supprimer les doublons col1/col2 inversés et soi-même + corr_unstacked = corr_unstacked[corr_unstacked["col1"] < corr_unstacked["col2"]] + + # Trier par valeur absolue de corrélation + corr_sorted = corr_unstacked.reindex(corr_unstacked["corr"].abs().sort_values(ascending=False).index) + print("Trier par valeur absolue de corrélation") + print(corr_sorted.head(20)) + + # --- Calcul de la corrélation --- + corr = df.corr(numeric_only=True) # évite les colonnes non numériques + corr = corr * 100 # passage en pourcentage + + # --- Masque pour n’afficher que le triangle supérieur (optionnel) --- + mask = np.triu(np.ones_like(corr, dtype=bool)) + + # --- Création de la figure --- + fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(96, 36)) + + # --- Heatmap avec un effet “température” --- + sns.heatmap( + corr, + mask=mask, + cmap="coolwarm", # palette bleu → rouge + center=0, # 0 au centre + annot=True, # affiche les valeurs dans chaque case + fmt=".0f", # format entier (pas de décimale) + cbar_kws={"label": "Corrélation (%)"}, # légende à droite + linewidths=0.5, # petites lignes entre les cases + ax=ax + ) + + # --- Personnalisation --- + ax.set_title("Matrice de corrélation (en %)", fontsize=20, pad=20) + plt.xticks(rotation=45, ha="right") + plt.yticks(rotation=0) + + # --- Sauvegarde --- + output_path = f"{path}/Matrice_de_correlation_temperature.png" + plt.savefig(output_path, bbox_inches="tight", dpi=150) + plt.close(fig) + + print(f"✅ Matrice enregistrée : {output_path}") + + # Exemple d'utilisation : + selected_corr = self.select_uncorrelated_features(df, target="target", top_n=30, corr_threshold=0.7) + print("===== 🎯 FEATURES SÉLECTIONNÉES =====") + print(selected_corr) + + # Nettoyage + df = df.dropna() + + X = df[self.model_indicators] + y = df['target'] # ta colonne cible binaire ou numérique + print("===== 🎯 FEATURES SCORES =====") + print(self.feature_auc_scores(X, y)) + + # 4️⃣ Split train/test + X = df[self.model_indicators] + y = df['target'] + # Séparation temporelle (train = 80 %, valid = 20 %) + X_train, X_valid, y_train, y_valid = train_test_split(X, y, test_size=0.2, shuffle=False) + + # Nettoyage des valeurs invalides + + selector = VarianceThreshold(threshold=0.0001) + selector.fit(X_train) + selected = X_train.columns[selector.get_support()] + print("Colonnes conservées :", list(selected)) + + # 5️⃣ Entraînement du modèle + # self.train_model = RandomForestClassifier(n_estimators=200, random_state=42) + + # def objective(trial): + # self.train_model = XGBClassifier( + # n_estimators=trial.suggest_int("n_estimators", 200, 300), + # max_depth=trial.suggest_int("max_depth", 3, 6), + # learning_rate=trial.suggest_float("learning_rate", 0.01, 0.3), + # subsample=trial.suggest_float("subsample", 0.7, 1.0), + # colsample_bytree=trial.suggest_float("colsample_bytree", 0.7, 1.0), + # scale_pos_weight=1, # tu mettras balance_ratio ici si tu veux + # objective="binary:logistic", + # eval_metric="logloss", + # n_jobs=-1 + # ) + # + # self.train_model.fit(X_train, y_train) + # + # y_pred = self.train_model.predict(X_valid) # <-- validation = test split + # return f1_score(y_valid, y_pred) + # + # study = optuna.create_study(direction="maximize") + # study.optimize(objective, n_trials=50) + + def objective(trial): + self.train_model = XGBClassifier( + n_estimators=trial.suggest_int("n_estimators", 200, 800), + max_depth=trial.suggest_int("max_depth", 3, 10), + learning_rate=trial.suggest_float("learning_rate", 0.005, 0.3, log=True), + subsample=trial.suggest_float("subsample", 0.6, 1.0), + colsample_bytree=trial.suggest_float("colsample_bytree", 0.6, 1.0), + scale_pos_weight=1, + objective="binary:logistic", + eval_metric="logloss", + n_jobs=-1 + ) + + self.train_model.fit( + X_train, + y_train, + eval_set=[(X_valid, y_valid)], + # early_stopping_rounds=50, + verbose=False + ) + + proba = self.train_model.predict_proba(X_valid)[:, 1] + thresholds = np.linspace(0.1, 0.9, 50) + best_f1 = max(f1_score(y_valid, (proba > t)) for t in thresholds) + + return best_f1 + study = optuna.create_study(direction="maximize") + study.optimize(objective, n_trials=50) + + # ---- après avoir exécuté la study ------ + + print("Best value (F1):", study.best_value) + print("Best params:", study.best_params) + + best_trial = study.best_trial + print("\n=== BEST TRIAL ===") + print("Number:", best_trial.number) + print("Value:", best_trial.value) + print("Params:") + for k, v in best_trial.params.items(): + print(f" - {k}: {v}") + + # All trials summary + print("\n=== ALL TRIALS ===") + for t in study.trials: + print(f"Trial {t.number}: f1 = {t.value}, params = {t.params}") + + # DataFrame of trials + df = study.trials_dataframe() + print(df.head()) + + # Graphs + fig = plot_optimization_history(study) + fig.write_html(f"{path}/optimization_history.html") + fig = plot_param_importances(study) + fig.write_html(f"{path}/param_importances.html") + fig = plot_slice(study) + fig.write_html(f"{path}/slice.html") + fig = plot_parallel_coordinate(study) + fig.write_html(f"{path}/parallel_coordinates.html") + + + # 2️⃣ Sélection des features AVANT calibration + sfm = SelectFromModel(self.train_model, threshold="median", prefit=True) + selected_features = X_train.columns[sfm.get_support()] + print(selected_features) + + # 3️⃣ Calibration ensuite (facultative) + calibrated = CalibratedClassifierCV(self.train_model, method='sigmoid', cv=5) + calibrated.fit(X_train[selected_features], y_train) + print(calibrated) + + # # # calibration + # self.train_model = CalibratedClassifierCV(self.train_model, method='sigmoid', cv=5) + # # Sélection + # sfm = SelectFromModel(self.train_model, threshold="median") + # sfm.fit(X_train, y_train) + # selected_features = X_train.columns[sfm.get_support()] + # print(selected_features) + + # self.train_model.fit(X_train, y_train) + + y_pred = self.train_model.predict(X_valid) + y_proba = self.train_model.predict_proba(X_valid)[:, 1] + # print(classification_report(y_valid, y_pred)) + # print(confusion_matrix(y_valid, y_pred)) + print("\nRapport de classification :\n", classification_report(y_valid, y_pred)) + print("\nMatrice de confusion :\n", confusion_matrix(y_valid, y_pred)) + + # # Importances + # importances = pd.DataFrame({ + # "feature": self.train_model.feature_name_, + # "importance": self.train_model.feature_importances_ + # }).sort_values("importance", ascending=False) + # print("\n===== 🔍 IMPORTANCE DES FEATURES =====") + # print(importances) + + # Feature importance + importances = self.train_model.feature_importances_ + feat_imp = pd.Series(importances, index=X_train.columns).sort_values(ascending=False) + + # Affichage + feat_imp.plot(kind='bar', figsize=(12, 6)) + plt.title("Feature importances") + # plt.show() + plt.savefig(f"{path}/Feature importances.png", bbox_inches='tight') + + result = permutation_importance(self.train_model, X_valid, y_valid, scoring='f1', n_repeats=10, random_state=42) + perm_imp = pd.Series(result.importances_mean, index=X_valid.columns).sort_values(ascending=False) + perm_imp.plot(kind='bar', figsize=(12, 6)) + plt.title("Permutation feature importance") + # plt.show() + plt.savefig(f"{path}/Permutation feature importance.png", bbox_inches='tight') + + # Shap + explainer = shap.TreeExplainer(self.train_model) + shap_values = explainer.shap_values(X_valid) + + # Résumé global + shap.summary_plot(shap_values, X_valid) + + # Force plot pour une observation + force_plot = shap.force_plot(explainer.expected_value, shap_values[0, :], X_valid.iloc[0, :]) + shap.save_html(f"{path}/shap_force_plot.html", force_plot) + + PartialDependenceDisplay.from_estimator(self.train_model, X_valid, selected_features, kind='average') + plt.figure(figsize=(24, 24)) + plt.savefig(f"{path}/PartialDependenceDisplay.png", bbox_inches='tight') + + best_f1 = 0 + best_t = 0.5 + for t in [0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7]: + y_pred_thresh = (y_proba > t).astype(int) + score = f1_score(y_valid, y_pred_thresh) + print(f"Seuil {t:.1f} → F1: {score:.3f}") + if score > best_f1: + best_f1 = score + best_t = t + + print(f"✅ Meilleur seuil trouvé: {best_t} avec F1={best_f1:.3f}") + + # 6️⃣ Évaluer la précision (facultatif) + preds = self.train_model.predict(X_valid) + acc = accuracy_score(y_valid, preds) + print(f"Accuracy: {acc:.3f}") + + # 7️⃣ Sauvegarde du modèle + joblib.dump(self.train_model, f"{pair}_rf_model.pkl") + print(f"✅ Modèle sauvegardé sous {pair}_rf_model.pkl") + + # X = dataframe des features (après shift/rolling/indicators) + # y = target binaire ou décimale + # model = ton modèle entraîné (RandomForestClassifier ou Regressor) + + # # --- 1️⃣ Mutual Information (MI) --- + # mi_scores = mutual_info_classif(X.fillna(0), y) + # mi_series = pd.Series(mi_scores, index=X.columns, name='MI') + # + # # --- 2️⃣ Permutation Importance (PI) --- + # pi_result = permutation_importance(self.train_model, X, y, n_repeats=10, random_state=42, n_jobs=-1) + # pi_series = pd.Series(pi_result.importances_mean, index=X.columns, name='PI') + # + # # --- 3️⃣ Combinaison dans un seul dataframe --- + # importance_df = pd.concat([mi_series, pi_series], axis=1) + # importance_df = importance_df.sort_values(by='PI', ascending=False) # tri par importance modèle + # print(importance_df) + # + # importance_df.plot(kind='bar', figsize=(10, 5)) + # plt.title("Mutual Info vs Permutation Importance") + # plt.ylabel("Score") + # plt.show() + + self.analyze_model(pair, self.train_model, X_train, X_valid, y_train, y_valid) + + def inspect_model(self, model): + """ + Affiche les informations d'un modèle ML déjà entraîné. + Compatible avec scikit-learn, xgboost, lightgbm, catboost... + """ + + print("===== 🔍 INFORMATIONS DU MODÈLE =====") + + # Type de modèle + print(f"Type : {type(model).__name__}") + print(f"Module : {model.__class__.__module__}") + + # Hyperparamètres + if hasattr(model, "get_params"): + params = model.get_params() + print(f"\n===== ⚙️ HYPERPARAMÈTRES ({len(params)}) =====") + for k, v in params.items(): + print(f"{k}: {v}") + + # Nombre d’estimateurs + if hasattr(model, "n_estimators"): + print(f"\nNombre d’estimateurs : {model.n_estimators}") + + # Importance des features + if hasattr(model, "feature_importances_"): + print("\n===== 📊 IMPORTANCE DES FEATURES =====") + + # Correction ici : + feature_names = getattr(model, "feature_names_in_", None) + if isinstance(feature_names, np.ndarray): + feature_names = feature_names.tolist() + elif feature_names is None: + feature_names = [f"feature_{i}" for i in range(len(model.feature_importances_))] + + fi = pd.DataFrame({ + "feature": feature_names, + "importance": model.feature_importances_ + }).sort_values(by="importance", ascending=False) + + print(fi) + + # Coefficients (modèles linéaires) + if hasattr(model, "coef_"): + print("\n===== ➗ COEFFICIENTS =====") + coef = np.array(model.coef_) + if coef.ndim == 1: + for i, c in enumerate(coef): + print(f"Feature {i}: {c:.6f}") + else: + print(coef) + + # Intercept + if hasattr(model, "intercept_"): + print("\nIntercept :", model.intercept_) + + # Classes connues + if hasattr(model, "classes_"): + print("\n===== 🎯 CLASSES =====") + print(model.classes_) + + # Scores internes + for attr in ["best_score_", "best_iteration_", "best_ntree_limit", "score_"]: + if hasattr(model, attr): + print(f"\n{attr} = {getattr(model, attr)}") + + # Méthodes disponibles + print("\n===== 🧩 MÉTHODES DISPONIBLES =====") + methods = [m for m, _ in inspect.getmembers(model, predicate=inspect.ismethod)] + print(", ".join(methods[:15]) + ("..." if len(methods) > 15 else "")) + + print("\n===== ✅ FIN DE L’INSPECTION =====") + + def analyze_model(self, pair, model, X_train, X_valid, y_train, y_valid): + """ + Analyse complète d'un modèle ML supervisé (classification binaire). + Affiche performances, importance des features, matrices, seuils, etc. + """ + output_dir = f"user_data/plots/{pair}/" + os.makedirs(output_dir, exist_ok=True) + + # ---- Prédictions ---- + preds = model.predict(X_valid) + probs = model.predict_proba(X_valid)[:, 1] if hasattr(model, "predict_proba") else preds + + # ---- Performances globales ---- + print("===== 📊 ÉVALUATION DU MODÈLE =====") + print("Colonnes du modèle :", model.feature_names_in_) + print("Colonnes X_valid :", list(X_valid.columns)) + print(f"Accuracy: {accuracy_score(y_valid, preds):.3f}") + print(f"ROC AUC : {roc_auc_score(y_valid, probs):.3f}") + + print("TN (True Negative) / FP (False Positive)") + print("FN (False Negative) / TP (True Positive)") + print("\nRapport de classification :\n", classification_report(y_valid, preds)) + + # | Élément | Valeur | Signification | + # | ------------------- | ------ | ----------------------------------------------------------- | + # | TN (True Negative) | 983 | Modèle a correctement prédit 0 (pas d’achat) | + # | FP (False Positive) | 43 | Modèle a prédit 1 alors que c’était 0 (faux signal d’achat) | + # | FN (False Negative) | 108 | Modèle a prédit 0 alors que c’était 1 (manqué un achat) | + # | TP (True Positive) | 19 | Modèle a correctement prédit 1 (bon signal d’achat) | + + # ---- Matrice de confusion ---- + cm = confusion_matrix(y_valid, preds) + print("Matrice de confusion :\n", cm) + + plt.figure(figsize=(4, 4)) + plt.imshow(cm, cmap="Blues") + plt.title("Matrice de confusion") + plt.xlabel("Prédit") + plt.ylabel("Réel") + for i in range(2): + for j in range(2): + plt.text(j, i, cm[i, j], ha="center", va="center", color="black") + # plt.show() + plt.savefig(os.path.join(output_dir, "Matrice de confusion.png"), bbox_inches="tight") + plt.close() + + # ---- Importance des features ---- + if hasattr(model, "feature_importances_"): + print("\n===== 🔍 IMPORTANCE DES FEATURES =====") + importance = pd.DataFrame({ + "feature": X_train.columns, + "importance": model.feature_importances_ + }).sort_values(by="importance", ascending=False) + print(importance) + + # Crée une figure plus grande + fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(24, 8)) # largeur=24 pouces, hauteur=8 pouces + + # Trace le bar plot sur cet axe + importance.plot.bar(x="feature", y="importance", legend=False, ax=ax) + + # Tourner les labels pour plus de lisibilité + ax.set_xticklabels(ax.get_xticklabels(), rotation=45, ha='right') + + plt.title("Importance des features") + # plt.show() + plt.savefig(os.path.join(output_dir, "Importance des features.png"), bbox_inches="tight") + plt.close() + + # ---- Arbre de décision (extrait) ---- + if hasattr(model, "estimators_"): + print("\n===== 🌳 EXTRAIT D’UN ARBRE =====") + print(export_text(model.estimators_[0], feature_names=list(X_train.columns))[:800]) + + # ---- Précision selon le seuil ---- + thresholds = np.linspace(0.1, 0.9, 9) + print("\n===== ⚙️ PERFORMANCE SELON SEUIL =====") + for t in thresholds: + preds_t = (probs > t).astype(int) + acc = accuracy_score(y_valid, preds_t) + print(f"Seuil {t:.1f} → précision {acc:.3f}") + + # ---- ROC Curve ---- + fpr, tpr, _ = roc_curve(y_valid, probs) + plt.figure(figsize=(5, 4)) + plt.plot(fpr, tpr, label="ROC curve") + plt.plot([0, 1], [0, 1], linestyle="--", color="gray") + plt.xlabel("Taux de faux positifs") + plt.ylabel("Taux de vrais positifs") + plt.title("Courbe ROC") + plt.legend() + # plt.show() + plt.savefig(os.path.join(output_dir, "Courbe ROC.png"), bbox_inches="tight") + plt.close() + + # # ---- Interprétation SHAP (optionnelle) ---- + # try: + # import shap + # + # print("\n===== 💡 ANALYSE SHAP =====") + # explainer = shap.TreeExplainer(model) + # shap_values = explainer.shap_values(X_valid) + # # shap.summary_plot(shap_values[1], X_valid) + # # Vérifie le type de sortie de shap_values + # if isinstance(shap_values, list): + # # Cas des modèles de classification (plusieurs classes) + # shap_values_to_plot = shap_values[0] if len(shap_values) == 1 else shap_values[1] + # else: + # shap_values_to_plot = shap_values + # + # # Ajustement des dimensions au besoin + # if shap_values_to_plot.shape[1] != X_valid.shape[1]: + # print(f"⚠️ Mismatch dimensions SHAP ({shap_values_to_plot.shape[1]}) vs X_valid ({X_valid.shape[1]})") + # min_dim = min(shap_values_to_plot.shape[1], X_valid.shape[1]) + # shap_values_to_plot = shap_values_to_plot[:, :min_dim] + # X_to_plot = X_valid.iloc[:, :min_dim] + # else: + # X_to_plot = X_valid + # + # plt.figure(figsize=(12, 4)) + # shap.summary_plot(shap_values_to_plot, X_to_plot, show=False) + # plt.savefig(os.path.join(output_dir, "shap_summary.png"), bbox_inches="tight") + # plt.close() + # except ImportError: + # print("\n(SHAP non installé — `pip install shap` pour activer l’analyse SHAP.)") + + y_proba = model.predict_proba(X_valid)[:, 1] + + # Trace ou enregistre le graphique + self.plot_threshold_analysis(y_valid, y_proba, step=0.05, + save_path=f"{output_dir}/threshold_analysis.png") + + # y_valid : vraies classes (0 / 1) + # y_proba : probabilités de la classe 1 prédites par ton modèle + # Exemple : y_proba = model.predict_proba(X_valid)[:, 1] + + seuils = np.arange(0.0, 1.01, 0.05) + precisions, recalls, f1s = [], [], [] + + for seuil in seuils: + y_pred = (y_proba >= seuil).astype(int) + precisions.append(precision_score(y_valid, y_pred)) + recalls.append(recall_score(y_valid, y_pred)) + f1s.append(f1_score(y_valid, y_pred)) + + plt.figure(figsize=(10, 6)) + plt.plot(seuils, precisions, label='Précision', marker='o') + plt.plot(seuils, recalls, label='Rappel', marker='o') + plt.plot(seuils, f1s, label='F1-score', marker='o') + + # Ajoute un point pour le meilleur F1 + best_idx = np.argmax(f1s) + plt.scatter(seuils[best_idx], f1s[best_idx], color='red', s=80, label=f'Max F1 ({seuils[best_idx]:.2f})') + + plt.title("Performance du modèle selon le seuil de probabilité") + plt.xlabel("Seuil de probabilité (classe 1)") + plt.ylabel("Score") + plt.grid(True, alpha=0.3) + plt.legend() + plt.savefig(f"{output_dir}/seuil_de_probabilite.png", bbox_inches='tight') + # plt.show() + + print(f"✅ Meilleur F1 : {f1s[best_idx]:.3f} au seuil {seuils[best_idx]:.2f}") + + print("\n===== ✅ FIN DE L’ANALYSE =====") + + def plot_threshold_analysis(self, y_true, y_proba, step=0.05, save_path=None): + """ + Affiche la précision, le rappel et le F1-score selon le seuil de décision. + y_true : labels réels (0 ou 1) + y_proba : probabilités prédites (P(hausse)) + step : pas entre les seuils testés + save_path : si renseigné, enregistre l'image au lieu d'afficher + """ + + # Le graphique généré affichera trois courbes : + # + # 🔵 Precision — la fiabilité de tes signaux haussiers. + # + # 🟢 Recall — la proportion de hausses que ton modèle détecte. + # + # 🟣 F1-score — le compromis optimal entre les deux. + + thresholds = np.arange(0, 1.01, step) + precisions, recalls, f1s = [], [], [] + + for thr in thresholds: + preds = (y_proba >= thr).astype(int) + precisions.append(precision_score(y_true, preds)) + recalls.append(recall_score(y_true, preds)) + f1s.append(f1_score(y_true, preds)) + + plt.figure(figsize=(10, 6)) + plt.plot(thresholds, precisions, label="Precision", linewidth=2) + plt.plot(thresholds, recalls, label="Recall", linewidth=2) + plt.plot(thresholds, f1s, label="F1-score", linewidth=2, linestyle="--") + plt.axvline(0.5, color='gray', linestyle=':', label="Seuil 0.5") + plt.title("📊 Performance selon le seuil de probabilité", fontsize=14) + plt.xlabel("Seuil de décision (threshold)") + plt.ylabel("Score") + plt.legend() + plt.grid(True, alpha=0.3) + + if save_path: + plt.savefig(save_path, bbox_inches='tight') + print(f"✅ Graphique enregistré : {save_path}") + else: + plt.show() + + def feature_auc_scores(self, X, y): + aucs = {} + for col in X.columns: + try: + aucs[col] = roc_auc_score(y, X[col].ffill().fillna(0)) + except Exception: + aucs[col] = np.nan + return pd.Series(aucs).sort_values(ascending=False) + + def listUsableColumns(self, dataframe): + # Étape 1 : sélectionner numériques + numeric_cols = dataframe.select_dtypes(include=['int64', 'float64']).columns + # Étape 2 : enlever constantes + usable_cols = [c for c in numeric_cols if dataframe[c].nunique() > 1 + and not c.endswith("_state") + and not c.endswith("_1d") + # and not c.endswith("_1h") + # and not c.startswith("open") and not c.startswith("close") + # and not c.startswith("low") and not c.startswith("high") + # and not c.startswith("haopen") and not c.startswith("haclose") + # and not c.startswith("bb_lower") and not c.startswith("bb_upper") + # and not c.startswith("bb_middle") + and not c.endswith("_count") + and not c.endswith("_class") and not c.endswith("_price") + and not c.startswith('stop_buying') + and not c.startswith('lvl') + ] + # Étape 3 : remplacer inf et NaN par 0 + dataframe[usable_cols] = dataframe[usable_cols].replace([np.inf, -np.inf], 0).fillna(0) + print("Colonnes utilisables pour le modèle :") + print(usable_cols) + self.model_indicators = usable_cols + return self.model_indicators + + + def select_uncorrelated_features(self, df, target, top_n=20, corr_threshold=0.7): + """ + Sélectionne les features les plus corrélées avec target, + tout en supprimant celles trop corrélées entre elles. + """ + # 1️⃣ Calcul des corrélations absolues avec la cible + corr = df.corr(numeric_only=True) + corr_target = corr[target].abs().sort_values(ascending=False) + + # 2️⃣ Prend les N features les plus corrélées avec la cible (hors target) + features = corr_target.drop(target).head(top_n).index.tolist() + + # 3️⃣ Évite les features trop corrélées entre elles + selected = [] + for feat in features: + too_correlated = False + for sel in selected: + if abs(corr.loc[feat, sel]) > corr_threshold: + too_correlated = True + break + if not too_correlated: + selected.append(feat) + + # 4️⃣ Retourne un DataFrame propre avec les valeurs de corrélation + selected_corr = pd.DataFrame({ + "feature": selected, + "corr_with_target": [corr.loc[f, target] for f in selected] + }).sort_values(by="corr_with_target", key=np.abs, ascending=False) + + return selected_corr + + def calculateDerivation(self, dataframe, window=12, suffixe='', timeframe='5m'): + dataframe[f"mid_smooth{suffixe}"] = dataframe['mid'].rolling(window).mean() + dataframe = self.calculeDerivees(dataframe, f"mid_smooth{suffixe}", ema_period=window) + return dataframe + + def calculeDerivees( + self, + dataframe: pd.DataFrame, + name: str, + suffixe: str = '', + window: int = 100, + coef: float = 0.15, + ema_period: int = 10, + verbose: bool = True, + ) -> pd.DataFrame: + """ + Calcule deriv1/deriv2 (relative simple), applique EMA, calcule tendency + avec epsilon adaptatif basé sur rolling percentiles. + """ + + d1_col = f"{name}{suffixe}_deriv1" + d2_col = f"{name}{suffixe}_deriv2" + # d1s_col = f"{name}{suffixe}_deriv1_smooth" + # d2s_col = f"{name}{suffixe}_deriv2_smooth" + tendency_col = f"{name}{suffixe}_state" + + factor1 = 100 * (ema_period / 5) + factor2 = 10 * (ema_period / 5) + + dataframe[f"{name}{suffixe}_inv"] = (dataframe[f"{name}{suffixe}"].shift(2) >= dataframe[f"{name}{suffixe}"].shift(1)) \ + & (dataframe[f"{name}{suffixe}"].shift(1) <= dataframe[f"{name}{suffixe}"]) + # --- Distance à la moyenne mobile --- + dataframe[f"{name}{suffixe}_dist"] = (dataframe['close'] - dataframe[f"{name}{suffixe}"]) / dataframe[f"{name}{suffixe}"] + + + # dérivée relative simple + dataframe[d1_col] = (dataframe[name] - dataframe[name].shift(1)) / dataframe[name].shift(1) + # lissage EMA + dataframe[d1_col] = factor1 * dataframe[d1_col].ewm(span=ema_period, adjust=False).mean() + + # dataframe[d1_col] = dataframe[d1_col].rolling(window=ema_period, center=True).median() + + dataframe[d2_col] = dataframe[d1_col] - dataframe[d1_col].shift(1) + dataframe[d2_col] = factor2 * dataframe[d2_col].ewm(span=ema_period, adjust=False).mean() + + # epsilon adaptatif via rolling percentile + p_low_d1 = dataframe[d1_col].rolling(window=window, min_periods=1).quantile(0.05) + p_high_d1 = dataframe[d1_col].rolling(window=window, min_periods=1).quantile(0.95) + p_low_d2 = dataframe[d2_col].rolling(window=window, min_periods=1).quantile(0.05) + p_high_d2 = dataframe[d2_col].rolling(window=window, min_periods=1).quantile(0.95) + + eps_d1_series = ((p_low_d1.abs() + p_high_d1.abs()) / 2) * coef + eps_d2_series = ((p_low_d2.abs() + p_high_d2.abs()) / 2) * coef + + # fallback global eps + global_eps_d1 = (abs(dataframe[d1_col].quantile(0.05)) + abs(dataframe[d1_col].quantile(0.95))) / 2 * coef + global_eps_d2 = (abs(dataframe[d2_col].quantile(0.05)) + abs(dataframe[d2_col].quantile(0.95))) / 2 * coef + + eps_d1_series = eps_d1_series.fillna(global_eps_d1).replace(0, global_eps_d1) + eps_d2_series = eps_d2_series.fillna(global_eps_d2).replace(0, global_eps_d2) + + # if verbose and self.dp.runmode.value in ('backtest'): + # stats = dataframe[[d1_col, d2_col]].agg(['min', 'max']).T + # stats['abs_max'] = dataframe[[d1_col, d2_col]].abs().max(axis=0) + # print(f"---- Derivatives stats {timeframe}----") + # print(stats) + # print(f"rolling window = {window}, coef = {coef}, ema_period = {ema_period}") + # print("---------------------------") + + # mapping tendency + def tag_by_derivatives(row): + idx = int(row.name) + d1v = float(row[d1_col]) + d2v = float(row[d2_col]) + eps1 = float(eps_d1_series.iloc[idx]) + eps2 = float(eps_d2_series.iloc[idx]) + + # # mapping état → codes 3 lettres explicites + # # | Ancien état | Nouveau code 3 lettres | Interprétation | + # # | ----------- | ---------------------- | --------------------- | + # # | 4 | HAU | Hausse Accélérée | + # # | 3 | HSR | Hausse Ralentissement | + # # | 2 | HST | Hausse Stable | + # # | 1 | DHB | Départ Hausse | + # # | 0 | PAL | Palier / neutre | + # # | -1 | DBD | Départ Baisse | + # # | -2 | BSR | Baisse Ralentissement | + # # | -3 | BST | Baisse Stable | + # # | -4 | BAS | Baisse Accélérée | + + # Palier strict + if abs(d1v) <= eps1 and abs(d2v) <= eps2: + return 0 + # Départ si d1 ~ 0 mais d2 signale direction + if abs(d1v) <= eps1: + return 1 if d2v > eps2 else -1 if d2v < -eps2 else 0 + # Hausse + if d1v > eps1: + return 4 if d2v > eps2 else 3 + # Baisse + if d1v < -eps1: + return -4 if d2v < -eps2 else -2 + return 0 + + dataframe[tendency_col] = dataframe.apply(tag_by_derivatives, axis=1) + + # if timeframe == '1h' and verbose and self.dp.runmode.value in ('backtest'): + # print("##################") + # print(f"# STAT {timeframe} {name}{suffixe}") + # print("##################") + # self.calculateProbabilite2Index(dataframe, futur_cols=['futur_percent'], indic_1=f"{name}{suffixe}_deriv1", indic_2=f"{name}{suffixe}_deriv2") + + return dataframe